Prophecy

A forecasting desk built around the people who forecast

Prophecy is Windows software for demand forecasting that is shaped for front-line forecasters rather than data scientists. Its pivot-table style editor and Microsoft Office look are meant to keep training time down, while the statistical engine does more than a spreadsheet can. The vendor, Data Perceptions, positions it as a purpose-built replacement for Excel forecasting, saying it cuts errors and removes manual data loading so forecasters can spend their time improving accuracy.

Statistics and judgement together

Forecasts can be produced in an automatic mode or an expert mode, using statistical and machine learning methods. The product then gives forecasters room to add what the algorithms cannot know: event knowledge, competitor activity and promotions that are deliberately different each time. The vendor says it is aimed at businesses with frequent and highly variable promotions, active competitors, promotions that fall at different times each year, or a few major customers that make up much of total sales.

From volume to profit over hierarchies

A forecast begins as a volume figure and extends in real time to revenue, margin and other measures the user defines, such as kilograms or litres. Standard costs and selling prices can be imported into the database, or prices and discounts modelled by hand, so the effect of a price or volume change rolls up at once across whole hierarchies of products and customers. Comparisons are available against the previous year, recent running rates, budgets, targets and what-if scenarios.

Several forecasters, one set of numbers

Prophecy is multi-user. A fine-grained security model lets several people update the forecasts for their own customers and products, and measures such as budgets can be protected for chosen groups. The software supports a forecast, review, re-forecast and publish cycle, so the output can be shared across sales, finance and supply functions as one agreed view.

Accuracy and early warning

Standard forecast accuracy measures are built in, and users can examine accuracy for volume, revenue or profit at any level, for any combination of product and customer and over any horizon. Graphical views and automatic forecast risk assessments are meant to reveal exceptions and trends sooner, so mistakes are caught before they hurt the business.

Trade promotions

An optional Trade Promotions Planning module lets itemised promotions be planned, modelled, approved and evaluated alongside the forecast.

Prophecy is a Windows application for demand forecasting. Several users can work on the same forecasts together, and the results can be traced from sales volumes through to profit.

What Prophecy offers

• Statistical and machine learning forecasts: automatic and expert modes.
• Forecaster judgement: lets staff add event knowledge alongside the statistical result.
• Hierarchies: forecasts by product and customer, expanded to revenue and margin.
• Analysis and reporting: compares forecasts with last year, budgets, targets and what-if scenarios.
• Risk checks: highlights errors and exceptions early.
• Trade promotions: an optional planning module.

Who it works with

Business teams that need shared, defensible sales forecasts across several functions.

Key facts

• Platform: Windows
• Interface: Microsoft Office style, to keep training time short
• Users: multi-user and multi-level